Rate Lock Advisory

Tuesday, July 25th

Tuesday’s bond market has opened well in negative territory following much stronger than expected economic data. Stocks are also contributing to bond pressure this morning with an earnings-related rally. The Dow is currently up 102 points, while the Nasdaq has gained 3 points. The bond market is currently down 14/32 (2.30%), which should push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 - .250 of a discount point from Monday’s morning pricing.



30 yr - 2.30%







Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock



Consumer Confidence Index (Conference Board)

The Conference Board gave us today’s only relevant economic data with the release of their Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for July. The 10:00 AM ET release revealed a reading of 121.1 that exceeded forecasts of 116.8 and June’s revised 117.3. Analysts were expecting to see a decline in confidence, not a sizable increase. This is bad news for bonds and mortgage rates because rising confidence means consumers are more apt to make large purchases that fuel economic growth.



New Home Sales

Tomorrow we have several events to watch. They start at 10:00 AM ET when the Commerce Department posts June's New Home Sales report. This data tracks sales of newly constructed homes, but they make up a much smaller portion of the housing sector than existing home sales. That makes the data less important to the markets than yesterday’s Existing Home Sales report. Analysts are expecting to see little change from May’s sales, indicating that the new home portion of the housing sector was flat last month. Favorable news would be a sizable decline in sales.



Treasury Auctions (5,7,10,30 year securities)

There are two Treasury auctions that are worth watching this week, one of which is taking place tomorrow. 5-year Treasury Notes are being sold tomorrow while 7-year Notes go Thursday. Neither of these sales will directly impact mortgage pricing, but they can influence general bond market sentiment. If the sales go poorly, we could see broader selling in the bond market that leads to upward revisions to mortgage rates. On the other hand, strong sales usually make bonds more attractive to investors, bringing more funds into the bond market. The buying of bonds that follows translates into lower mortgage rates. Results of the sales will be posted at 1:00 PM ET each auction day, so look for any reaction to come during early afternoon hours tomorrow and Thursday.



Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Statement

Next up is tomorrow’s afternoon adjournment of the FOMC meeting that began today. This is not a meeting that will include economic projections nor will it be followed by a press conference with Fed Chair Yellen. The meeting is not expected to yield a change to key interest rates. Many analysts believe the Fed will make their next increase to short-term interest rates later this year, not this week. Anything in the post-meeting statement that either confirms or contradicts that theory will cause volatility in the markets. Also of extreme interest is the Fed’s plans for their massive balance sheet and when they will start reducing it. The meeting will adjourn at 2:00 PM ET, so any reaction will come during mid-afternoon hours.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.